Green industrial policy and hawkish security policies are clashing
get all the gas emissions off the highways of the world,” said John Goodenough, one of the Nobel prize-winning scientists who developed the lithium-ion battery four decades ago, during an interview in 2018. Goodenough died on June 25th before his dream could become reality. But governments around the world are scrambling to make it so, with remarkable results. Global sales ofYet the speed of the transformation is running into supply constraints and geopolitical headwinds.
The outcome will be determined in Asia, where most battery supply-chains are based. The first bottlenecks are in materials production and processing—including of two of the most crucial battery materials, lithium and nickel. Capturing a consistent supply of both will be crucial for producers globally. Almost half of the lithium produced in 2022 came from Australia, 30% from Chile and 15% from China.
The three operational plants in Indonesia use high-pressure acid leaching, an advanced process that extracts nickel from its ore without melting it. All are based on Chinese technology, operational prowess, or both. To secure supplies of nickel, Ford, an American automaker, formed a venture with a Chinese mining company, Huayou Cobalt, to invest in an Indonesian nickel-processing plant.
Chinese firms also dominate the production of battery parts. Among the components for battery cells, China accounts for at least half of production and more than 70% in some categories. The rest of the industry is concentrated in South Korea and Japan. Between them, the three East Asian countries make up between 92% and 100% of the mid-stream parts of the industry.
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