For the West, a government headed by Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the candidate of the main opposition alliance, would be a much easier partner to deal with. But well-wishers in Brussels or Washington should curb their enthusiasm
In the past couple of months, his government has waved through Finland’s accession to, which it had been blocking since last summer; banned companies from shipping sanctioned goods through Turkey to Russia; and courted Western investors whom it once spurned. But Mr Erdogan has also assured his supporters that Turkey no longer cares what Western countries think of its foreign policy, and accused the West of backing his rivals.
A new Turkish government committed to fixing the economy, releasing some political prisoners and dismantling Mr Erdogan’s autocracy would enjoy plenty of goodwill in the West. This could pay immediate dividends, such as reviving long-stalled talks on upgrading Turkey’s customs union with theallies.
A new government may have to rely on the country’s main Kurdish party in parliament. But it would be in no hurry to make peace with Kurdish insurgents in northern Syria or to withdraw troops from the region. It would probably stop removing elected Kurdish mayors from power, as Mr Erdogan has done since 2017, and allow the release of imprisoned Kurdish politicians such as Selahattin Demirtas, a former presidential contender.
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