AI is becoming the polarising topic of the day 🌧️ In my own world of weather forecasting and climate prediction, AI is starting to make a disruptive impression Professor Stephen Belcher - Met Office Chief Scientist
ArXiv,
describing AI-generated emulators that can do the time stepping bit of the weather prediction. Today Qi Tian, chief scientist in artificial intelligence, and colleagues from Huawei present anAt the Met Office we have been testing these models against our physics-based simulation systems. And the emulators do well – although not as well as the physics-based models. But the rate of progress is truly impressive.
? It’s not in the training data, so would an AI emulator predict such an event? If it did, would we believe it? The emulator is a black box – we don’t know why the results come out the way they do. The beauty of the physics-based models is that we can interrogate and see why we are getting the results. Furthermore, we know that theand extreme weather events are changing in character. So the AI emulators will need continued training to make sure they keep up with climate change.
At the Met Office, we’re not going to dump our physics-based models – the incredible improvements in weather forecasting over the past 40 years is underpinned by these models. But the prospects of complementing them with AI emulators provides exciting possibilities for improving weather prediction and the forecasts that enable us all to stay safe and thrive.
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