Warmdays are contributing to gunviolence surge across the US, says study of 100 cities jamanetworkopen
Daily city-specific maximum temperatures were calculated as the population-weighted mean of the maximum daily temperature for each pixel within the city’s geographical boundary. Temperatures were converted to city-specific percentiles to allow for relative comparisons between cities with different temperature distributions and to acknowledge the impact of acclimatization on individual experience of heat.
Our study was limited to officer-involved, unintentional, and assault-related shootings. It did not include suicides or intentional self-harm injuries because these are not available from GVA for analysis. The majority are likely assault related: a test case validation using US Census tract level counts of GVA assault-related shootings correlated at 0.98 with Philadelphia police data for assault-related shootings.
The shootings in these 100 cities represent 83% of all shootings reported during this period in the GVA data.Data analysis was performed from October 2021 to June 2022. We used distributed lag nonlinear models to quantify the association between temperature and shootings in each city.
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