Ukrainian officials say Kherson could see the fiercest battle of the war ➡️ But analysts are sceptical that Kyiv will launch a frontal assault to retake the city
Kherson is one of the stronger points in the Russian line since reinforcements over the summer, says retired US colonel, Mark Cancian, of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. He believes that reinforcement is ongoing. “I suspect there are a lot of mobilised personnel showing up and they are being used to fill a lot of holes in units,” he says.
Ukrainian messaging could be a continuation of psychological warfare methods that have served them well during the war, says Dr Gustafson, citing the surprise assault“They could just isolate the city and starve out the defenders,” he says. “The Ukrainians have never gone straight up the middle. They have always figured out where the enemy’s centre of gravity is to knock them off balance.”
For its part, the Ukrainian military has accused Russia of deploying mind games. Ukrainian intelligence official, Kyrylo Budanov, accused Moscow of “trying to create the illusion that everything is lost” in an interview with theThe Russian army has advantages in defending Kherson but has often failed to maximise advantages over the course of the war. If Russian forces stand their ground and still lose the city, the consequences could be disastrous.
“The problem is if their lines collapsed and they had to retreat. They would have a hard time getting their troops and equipment out… the risk is that they can’t get their forces over the river and lose 20,000 soldiers. And that would be catastrophic,” says Mr Cancian.