China can no longer count on getting its way in the South China Sea
is a third larger than the Mediterranean and has valuable fish stocks and untapped oil and gas reserves. Connecting East Asia’s economic miracle with much of the rest of the world, its waters play an outsize role in global maritime trade and security. Yet there is a problem. All seven nations that border the sea maintain overlapping rights to it. And one of them, China, claims nearly the entire maritime expanse—andWith massive terraforming, China has turned remote reefs into airstrips and bases.
Ever more obviously, South-East Asians are mastering and applying international law to push back against China. Malaysia’s submission to thein 2019 for an extended continental shelf implied yet another rebuke of China’s nine-dash line. Even more significant is a recent agreement between Indonesia and Vietnam to demarcate their respective exclusive economic zones.
Hard-nosed types will reply that what matters is what takes place out on the water. There China’s naval, coastguard and especially “grey zone” activities, whereby Chinese vessels swarm reefs and obstruct fishermen, have not let up. Yet some pushback to them, too, is apparent. Vietnam is reinforcing its outposts on the Spratly Islands in the heart of the sea.between the Philippines and the United States are rapidly thickening.
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