One study in Nature Geoscience showed that by changing what is planted on existing fields, output could rise enough to feed 825m more people, while reducing water use by 10%
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskA surprisingly large share of farmland is used for crops that do not maximise nutritional or economic value. One study inshowed that by changing what is planted on existing fields, output could rise enough to feed 825m more people, while reducing water use by 10%. And global warming is likely to make the current distribution of crops even less efficient: a paper inToday, crop-site mismatches tend to be most extreme in poor countries.
There is no practical way to get millions of small farmers to switch their crops. But global warming could force even agribusiness firms, which do much of the farming in richer countries, to change what they plant. Maize, America’s biggest crop, is sensitive to heat, and may need genetic modification to remain viable even under moderate warming scenarios. Soyabeans, grown on nearly half of Brazil’s farmland, are also expected to suffer.
Warming will also generate opportunities. Parts of Russia, Canada, China and the north-western United States should become prime areas for wheat, which resists heat and drought better than maize does—though chopping down forests in these regions would accelerate climate change. A few hotter, poorer areas could benefit too: increased rainfall might improve rice production in India and west Africa.
Although such forecasts reflect the best estimates of how climate change will affect individual crops in specific regions, they are highly uncertain. Rather than preparing for a single scenario, the best defence is for farmers to learn about a wide variety of crops. The only guarantee is that global warming will transform agriculture in ways that cannot be fully foreseen.
Belgique Dernières Nouvelles, Belgique Actualités
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