Deloitte anticipates a surge in crude prices for Canadian producers in 2024 due to the TMX pipeline's increased export capacity, alongside Alberta's commitment to reduce emissions, not oil production.
Global consulting firm Deloitte has predicted that Canadian oil producers will enjoy higher crude prices next year when the TMX pipeline begins transporting about 590,000 bbl/d for export. A large chunk of these additional exports is expected to go to markets outside the United States, thus allowing Canadian producers to lower their dependence on U.S. refineries and narrow the WCS price differential.
A lack of pipelines and persistent environmental concerns have hampered the Canadian heavy crude sector for years, with some companies exiting after coming under pressure to invest in projects with lower emissions. However, Alberta has no plans to abandon fossil fuels any time soon, with Alberta premier Danielle Smith recently declaring that the energy rich region will transition away from emissions, not oil.