The rise of the outsider candidate is a broader trend across the region
voters went to the polls in Ecuador and Guatemala. Both elections had surprising results. In Ecuador, two candidates will now head to a run-off: Luisa González, a protégée of Rafael Correa, a former left-wing populist president, and Daniel Noboa, a 35-year-old who was polling in single digits a few days ago.
Across the region, voters have long been restless at the chequered state of democracy. In Guatemala this appears particularly acute. In 2019, a-backed anti-corruption body was shut down by a former president. Lawmakers are alleged to take money from drug traffickers and other corrupt actors in exchange for supporting their agendas. Under the outgoing president, Alejandro Giammattei, the courts have been stacked with loyalists to the political elites.
However, there are likely to be legal challenges between now and the inauguration in January. Early on three popular candidates were excluded from the race on dubious grounds . Other political parties launched a spurious legal challenge to the vote following the first round in June. Another continuing case seeks to revoke Semilla’s legal status on the basis of irregularities in its registration .
Instead, Ecuador’s result shows a deeply divided country. Ms González won 33% of the valid votes. Her success points to the staying power of Mr Correa, who ruled from 2007 to 2017 and later went into self-imposed exile in Belgium, where he worked as a host for Russia Today, a news channel linked to the Kremlin. In 2020 he was tried in absentia for corruption and sentenced to an eight-year jail sentence. Many voters may be nostalgic for his rule, which coincided with a commodities boom.
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