How does a computer model evaluate college QBs? Ranking the Power 5 projected starters

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How does a computer model evaluate college QBs? Ranking the Power 5 projected starters
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How do you evaluate college football’s next great quarterbacks? Our model aims to get the conversation started.

By using data such as recruiting rankings, size and a player’s conference, I can incorporate many of the common beliefs we all have about these quarterbacks to produce a baseline career projection before they set foot on campus. From there, I update this projection as they begin to play and slowly place more weight on their actual performance than priors.

My model splits out passing and rushing into two components with their own projections. I then calculate a weighted score from the median projections, with 85 percent weight on a quarterback’s passing and 15 percent on their rushing to produce the rankings.for debate, rather than the be-all and end-all. Players expected to break out who have fewer career snaps will be ranked lower because the model has more uncertainty about them.

Now, let’s get to the rankings, which here are limited to projected Power 5 starting quarterbacks. These will be fluid through the season as more data is added. After the ratings,’s David Ubben weighs on who the model underrates and overrates and who we can expect to move up and down the rankings as the 2023 season progresses.data refers to the 247Sports Composite. All other data is via cfbfastR, collegefootballdata.com and PFF. Only games against FBS competition are included in the data.

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