And what have we predicted for 2022?
chastening experience of 2020—like everyone else, we were blindsided by the pandemic—we acquitted ourselves better in 2021. But while we got the broad strokes right, in retrospect some of our predictions did not go far enough.
The combination of vaccines and cheap, rapid tests began to turn the tide of the pandemic. As expected, there were fights between and within countries about access to vaccines. And scepticism and conspiracy theories led some people to refuse to have the jab. But we failed to foresee just how widespread vaccine refusal would become, and the extent to which it would become a badge of political identity.
We thought Japan might get a new prime minister, but did not tip Kishida Fumio as a contender. We were wrong to suggest demand for oil would stay depressed. Though we thought the Taliban had “a good chance of returning to power” in Afghanistan, we expected it to be the result of a political deal, not a military clean-sweep. And we were shocked by Xi Jinping’s brutal clampdown on tech companies. But for future-watchers, being surprised is what keeps things interesting.
Belgique Dernières Nouvelles, Belgique Actualités
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