Conflicts across the world are lasting longer. Three factors are to blame
for most of the time since independence in 1956. The mayhem this week illustrates an under-reported global calamity: the increasing duration of war.
One reason why wars are lasting longer is that they are growing more complex. Most are civil wars in poor places. Many have multiple belligerent groups, who must all be satisfied if peace is to stick. Between 2001 and 2010 roughly five countries a year suffered two or more simultaneous conflicts; now 15 do. And since 1991 there has been a twelve-fold increase in the proportion of civil wars involving foreign forces.
The most worrying factor, however, is climate change. It does not directly cause war, but it makes it more likely. When farmers are displaced by droughts or floods, they often move onto lands that traditionally belong to other ethnic groups. In just one region of Mali, ancounted 70 conflicts, mostly over land and grazing rights. In the Sahel, an arid vastness below the Sahara desert, climate change has disrupted livelihoods so badly that jihadist groups find it easy to recruit.
Belgique Dernières Nouvelles, Belgique Actualités
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