The world’s population pecking order is about to change
have provided 35% of the world’s population growth. But China’s strict family-planning rules—the so-called one-child policy introduced in 1980—drastically reduced its birth rate. Now its population is about to decline. Although the Communist Party allows women to have three children, they average only 1.2. By 2050 China’s population will be 8% smaller than it is now. India’s population, meanwhile, will continue growing. It is expected to peak at 1.
The shift also threatens to end China’s role as the world’s factory. What once appeared to be an endless stream of cheap labour is starting to run dry. Despite pools of underemployment in the countryside, China already has shortages of manual workers. India’s development has relied less on industry than that of other emerging economies. Manufacturing generates 14% of Indian GDP, compared with 27% in China. What industry India does have clusters in the relatively prosperous south and west. But it is the poorer northern states that are. Uttar Pradesh, for instance, is home to 17% of India’s population but has only 9% of its industrial jobs. That mismatch will hamper India’s economic growth.
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