China’s rapid rise has been a defining feature of the world for four decades. Now, however, its growth is slowing. This is what could happen next:
of China has been a defining feature of the world for the past four decades. Since the country began to open up and reform its economy in 1978, itshas grown by a dizzying 9% a year, on average. That has allowed a staggering 800m Chinese citizens to escape from poverty. Today China accounts for almost a fifth of global output. The sheer size of its market and manufacturing base has reshaped the global economy.
This change in economic trajectory is the subject of fierce debate among China-watchers . They are thinking again about China’s clout and its rivalry with America. One view is that Chinese power will fall relative to that of its rivals, which could paradoxically make it more dangerous. In a book last year, Hal Brands and Michael Beckley, two scholars, popularised a theory they called “Peak China”.
Adding workers is one way for an economy to grow. Another is to make better use of the existing population. But China’s second problem is that output per worker is unlikely to rise as fast as forecasters once hoped. More of its resources will go to caring for the elderly. After decades of building houses, roads and railways, spending on infrastructure faces diminishing returns.
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