Is inflation spike a blip - or could consumers be facing a 'nasty surprise'?

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Is inflation spike a blip - or could consumers be facing a 'nasty surprise'?
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Temporary factors are behind much of the latest price rise data but with the cost of energy and raw materials also going up, worries about inflation becoming 'sticky' could be amplified in coming months.

As with so much in economics, it's possible to argue both sides here.

One year on, restaurant prices are no longer discounted, so there is what economists call a"base effect" pushing up the inflation index.Indeed, that is likely to be the broad message we get in the coming weeks from the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who is now duty-bound to provide a letter of explanation as to why CPI is now more than a percentage point above the monetary policy committee's 2% target.

The problem, however, is that the Bank has repeated this argument for most of this year, yet inflation has kept rising faster and further than the Bank's forecasts implied.Now it looks like the CPI index will get to 4% before the year is out. Across most raw materials like copper and steel, timber and wood, cement and masonry, food and drinks, prices seem to be rising far faster than usual.In the past few months, wholesale energy prices - not just in the UK but across Europe - have risen gradually and then sharply.There are plenty of reasons for this: a shortage of gas and lower-than-usual wind speeds in the North Sea among them.

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