Tony Blair’s former chief-of-staff says lessons from the Good Friday Agreement can help bring peace
of the Good Friday Agreement this month should remind us that even the most intractable conflicts can eventually be resolved by negotiation. Northern Ireland was believed to be insoluble. No one could foresee a zone of possible agreement that could satisfy the Irish Republican Army , the Protestant Unionists and the British government. But there was one.
Despite China’s peace initiative, and others from countries such as France, now is not the time for negotiations. Peace talks usually only succeed if there is what academics call a ‘perceived mutually hurting stalemate’ and if there are leaders prepared to take political risks. As Ukraine prepares to launch a spring offensive in the coming weeks, no one should expect a pause until that has played out.
In terms of the structure of eventual negotiations, it is hard to believe that Vladimir Putin will risk losing control by empowering one state as a mediator. There is a case, however, for establishing groups of friends on both sides, ‘peace clubs’ as they have been described by President Lula of Brazil. President Xi Jinping of China could anchor one group with the other members of the, a bloc which consists of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
A ceasefire would be a potential trap for Ukraine, allowing the Russians to regroup and attack again. An armistice or frozen conflict would leave Russia occupying Ukrainian territory and able to exercise leverage on Ukraine and prevent its development as a European nation.
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