The atmosphere at Westminster is the calmest it's been for a long time - but is it enough for the Tory Party?
"There are no coups, there are no plots," a cabinet minister confides about conversations with colleagues. After a year of almost unparalleled political skulduggery, that is a pretty decent gift to go under Rishi Sunak's Christmas tree.
Second, the assumption that it would be impossible for Keir Starmer to turn Labour around in a single term looks flimsy now. The leader does publicly, and regularly, warn against complacency in his ranks. But Labour's front bench is starting to look like a group of people who believe they'll be the ones at the cabinet table, and whizzing around in ministerial cars, in 18 months or so.
It would be ludicrous to forget the role of the pandemic in later years, and then, of course, Russian tanks across the Ukrainian border. Rishi Sunak's government, like Liz Truss's administration, and Boris Johnson before, have had to confront a set of epic problems that have confounded governments across the west.
Boris Johnson's promises were scuppered by the realities of the pandemic, but his exit was forced by a succession of his own messes. Liz Truss temporarily excited her backers with bold goals, but the screeching pace of her plans left them in flames. One saddened former minister says: 'We've wasted the mandate… covid is partly responsible, but when you get an 80 majority what can you show for it? There are a lot of people now who can't see a way through.
Several cite the prime minister's plans to stem the arrivals of small boats on the south coast as evidence of him getting to grips with issues. A senior minister tells me the "Labour vote is soft" believing, the election is "absolutely all to play for". But for the public, the end of political shenanigans matters far less than the very real problems going on in so many areas.
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