The problem for Rishi Sunak is that it’s Johnson’s supporters who have fallen out of love with the Tories most 🖋️ John Curtice for ipaperviews
, seize on the fact that the “experts'” dire predictions were wrong and argue that the party is on the road to recovery.
Unfortunately for the Conservatives, the experts were right. The party did lose a thousand seats. Voters showed one in three Tory councillors the exit door. The only saving grace was that by the time on Friday evening all the results were in and the thousand-seat barrier breached, media attention had switched toIn truth, seat gains and losses were never going to be more than an imperfect guide to how well the parties performed in these local elections.
Meanwhile, the ups and downs in seat numbers were a reflection of how things have changed since what now represents psephological prehistory – in May 2019 when Brexit divisions were causing both the Conservatives and Labour to haemorrhage support. Yet what we really want to know is what impact. That requires us to examine the ups and downs in votes as compared with more recent local elections.
The detailed ward by ward voting figures for 45 of the 230 local authorities where an election took place this year were collected. They do not make comfortable reading for Conservatives. On average, the party was down by four points since last year in wards fought by all three main parties – and by as much as ten points since two years ago, that is before “Partygate” hit the headlines and the party still enjoyed a lead over Labour in the national polls.
Moreover, the party’s loss of support has been particularly heavy in places that were the bedrock of Boris Johnson’s election victory in 2019. For example, support for the party was on average down on two years ago by 7.5 points in wards that gave Remain a clear lead in 2016, but by 12.5 in places that voted heavily for Leave.
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