The ongoing discussions between the U.S. and Iran about a new version of the JCPOA are not for an all-encompassing version of that original pre-2015 deal.
The reason why this clause was so important to the U.S. – and why Iran refused to negotiate on the issue – was that it has aimed directly at destroying the enormous influence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps across all areas of Iran’s political, economic, and military structures.
From the moment that the U.S. unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA on 18 May 2018, Iran’s chief strategy was to get some sort of deal back in place – after all, the deal was good for its business and financial well-being – was to keep enriching uranium beyond the previous JCPOA agreed limit of just 3.67 percent. Tehran knew that this would cause consternation in Israel and that Tel Aviv would bring pressure on the U.S. to do something to redress the continued increases in enrichment.
Washington’s concerns over this scenario increased markedly after the 10 March deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia. They increased again after Israel communicated to the U.S. that following on from the opening of an Azerbaijani embassy in in Tel Aviv on 29 March this year, the two countries would be expanding their already considerable military cooperation. According to the U.S. and E.U sources, Israel has told the U.S.
The ongoing discussions between the U.S. and Iran about a new version of the JCPOA are not for an all-encompassing version of that original pre-2015 deal, but for a ‘limited version’ of it, according to the U.S. and E.U. sources last week. For a start, Iran will not have to commit to a specific date to sign up to the FATF, but merely indicate that it will make efforts towards aligning itself towards the FATF’s goals over an unspecified time. The U.S.
Aside from making the world a slightly safer place, at least in the short term, the new limited version JCPOA will have a significant effect on global oil prices. Aslast year, Iranian crude oil and condensate production could bounce back very quickly after Iran’s Petroleum Ministry orders the National Iranian Oil Company to ramp up production. According to a senior analyst at global energy markets intelligence company Kpler, spoken to exclusively by OilPrice.
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