“A risk-on sentiment and a weaker US dollar are helping oil today,” said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodities analyst at UBS Group AG. “The Russian comments are also helping but the market probably wants to see it before it believes, hence a muted response.”
After two weeks of silence in detailing how it would react to the G7 oil price cap, overnight the Kremlin raised the stakes for the west when state-run Tass news service quoted Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak as While not yet formalized, President Putin plans to sign a decree on the nation’s reaction to the threshold on Monday or Tuesday, containing unspecified “preventive measures."
As the war in Ukraine grinds on, traders have been waiting for Moscow’s full response to the cap, a policy that imposed a $60-a-barrel ceiling on Russian crude in a bid to reduce the Kremlin’s income while keeping exports on the market.
Traders are also watching for any fallout for energy markets from a vicious winter storm that’s pummeling parts of the country. “There is now a high likelihood that the Biden administration will gear up oil purchases heading into the new year,” said Ole Hvalbye, an analyst at SEB AB. Good luck keeping the price of oil below $95 which is the blended average sale price from the SPR.
In the physical market, the prompt time spread in WTI futures was 13 cents a barrel in backwardation, a bullish pattern in which near-term prices are higher than later-dated ones. A week ago, it was 17 cents a barrel in an opposite bearish contango. In other words, the bottom for the oil market is now in the rearview mirror, just as we expected.
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