If the virus is allowed to spread unencumbered, we predict that 1.5m Chinese people will die
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskBut there is enough data available to produce an informed estimate of where things are heading. So we have built a model that calculates the trajectory of China’s outbreak under different scenarios based on estimates of the rates at which people become infected, get sick, recover or die . The results are shocking. If the virus is allowed to spread unencumbered, we predict that 1.5m Chinese people will die.
Our model offers scenarios, not forecasts. The first, referenced above, is the most grim. About 96% of the population would catch the virus in the next three months. The demand forbeds would quickly exceed the supply. People over the age of 60 would account for 90% of the deaths. The economy would suffer, too. Nearly 2% of the working-age population would be sick and symptomatic at the height of such an outbreak.
Our worst-case scenario is in line with estimates elsewhere. Wigram Capital Advisors, an investment firm, projects 1m covid deaths in China over the winter. It used a similar model with different assumptions. Before China lifted its restrictions, Airfinity, a data firm, estimated that between 1.3m and 2.1m people would die if China ended its “zero-covid” policy.
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