Russia's president is hosting a summit of African leaders in a bid to increase Moscow's influence.
When President Vladimir Putin opens the Russia-Africa summit in St Petersburg on Thursday, the attendance cast list will be closely scrutinised - in Paris, Washington, London, and at United Nations headquarters in New York.
And of course, the invasion of Ukraine has dramatically heightened Western mistrust of Russia's ambitions around the world. And Russia knows this. In the run-up to the summit, its officials promised a new programme of support for the continent. That promises to drive up food prices in numerous African countries, potentially fuelling urban protest and political pressure on the leaders.The cost-of-living crisis has led to riots in countries including Kenya
Mr Putin is well aware of this diplomatic fallout. Could he be waiting for the summit to perhaps offer a supposedly magnanimously return to the grain deal, on slightly tweaked terms?Displaced from Russia after his recent mutiny, Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin recently promised his men an expanded focus on African operations.
And the military coups that followed in Guinea and Burkina Faso, with pro-Russian youths cheering in the streets of the latter's capital Ouagadougou, have only deepened elected African governments' wariness of Moscow's strategy.
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