Until recently military threats from China might have been dismissed as bluster. Now there are reasons to be worried
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskThere is scant hope of such a meek response if the current Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, goes ahead with a plan to visit Taiwan in August. The trip has not been confirmed, but people familiar with her planning said a stopover was possible as part of an Asia tour originally planned for April and postponed after she caught covid-19. When asked about the trip on July 20th, President Joe Biden said he did not know the status of it.
China has already made its feelings clear, threatening “strong and resolute measures” if the trip goes ahead. Hu Xijin, a former editor of a nationalistic Chinese tabloid, proposed that China’s armed forces impose a no-fly zone on Taiwan or at least fly aircraft over the island. He also suggested that Chinese warplanes should escort Ms Pelosi’s aircraft and that, if they came under fire, China should attack Taiwan’s military aircraft and bases.
Until recently such threats might have been dismissed as bluster. Ms Pelosi’s visit is arguably no more provocative than Mr Gingrich’s. American congressional delegations have visited regularly, as have other countries’ legislators. Yet there are reasons to be worried by China’s sabre-rattling. In 1997 it did not have the capabilities for an effective military response. That became clear in 1996, when America sent two carrier groups to the area after China fired missiles into waters nearby. Since then China has accumulated many of the forces needed for an assault and, in the past two years, tested Taiwan’s defences with frequent aerial drills around the island.
Chinese officials are increasingly convinced that the White House is recalibrating America’s “one-China” policy , including by sending officials to Taiwan more often. Ms Pelosi’s trip would come at a sensitive moment for China’s leader, Xi Jinping, about three months before a Communist Party congress at which he is expected to secure a third term, violating recent norms.
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