Without billions of extra dollars, policymakers face a terrible decision
) reckons that Africa needs 160 gigawatts of extra capacity by 2025. The continent now generates just 30or so of renewable energy. At the African Exim Bank’s recent annual meeting in Accra, the talk was about how to mine metals for the green transition, with little concern about the pollution this would involve.
This produces two bleak trade-offs. The first concerns priorities for national governments. Given their lack of preparation and sweltering temperatures, developing countries are among the most vulnerable to climate change. In the next couple of decades, pollution and extreme heat will worsen health outcomes. Natural disasters will wreak havoc and impose vast reconstruction costs. But in the short run, governments are unsure how to grow without fossil fuels.
Dollars go further in middle-income countries, since it is easier to attract private money. In Paris, Ajay Banga, the World Bank’s new president, led a group brimming with ideas about guarantees and insurance schemes that need concessional finance. Most will land in middle-income countries, where there are big private sectors and doing business is pretty straightforward.
The world’s biggest provider of climate and development finance, the World Bank, is caught between the two aims. Janet Yellen, who as America’s treasury secretary has outsize influence over the institution, spent much of a tour of Africa last year bemoaning the quality of its climate finance.
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