'The two sides will probably reach a deal, though it will surely take time. There will be many devils in many details that must be managed. The E.U. escalation is just the opening salvo of a much longer bureaucratic battle ahead,' writes ianbremmer
Bremmer is a foreign affairs columnist and editor-at-large at TIME. He is the president of Eurasia Group, a political-risk consultancy, and
Orbán, a talented populist who has built his public popularity by picking fights with Eurocrats, insists he is merely defending Hungarian traditional values. But he stands accused in the report of attacks on press freedom, the independence of judges and courts, academic freedom, minority rights, and the rights of asylum seekers. None of this is new, but the report dropped at a highly charged moment.
Other member states will vote in November on whether to withhold these funds, and the outcome won’t require unanimity but simply a “qualified majority,” a much lower threshold that leaves Orbán without protection. If the vote is yes, as is widely expected, Budapest will have one month to respond with changes meant to meet E.U. demands.