The potential for measles and rubella elimination globally TheLancet LancetGH universityofga penn_state gatesfoundation LSHTM measles rubella disease infection
By Tarun Sai LomteSep 19 2022Reviewed by Danielle Ellis, B.Sc. In a recent study published in The Lancet Global Health, researchers modeled the probability of eradication of measles and rubella by 2100.
The WHO Director-General was requested at the Seventieth World Health Assembly in 2017 to report in three years on the feasibility and epidemiologic aspects of and resource requirements for eradicating measles and rubella. Accordingly, a feasibility assessment for eradicating rubella and measles was conducted. One of its objectives was to model vaccination scenarios to examine the feasibility of measles and rubella eradication.
Ninety-three low-, lower-middle, and upper-middle-income nations with the highest burden of measles and rubella were selected for analysis. The sub-national model based on the Institute of Disease Modeling simulated measles dynamics in Nigeria. Two-hundred stochastic simulations were run per country for each model from 1980 to 2100.
In the intensified investment approach, the incidence of rubella and congenital rubella syndrome was projected to decline substantially from 2020 to 2100. The probability of eradicating rubella was higher and possible in a shorter period than in the business-as-usual approach. The PHE and JHU intensified investment models revealed that elimination was generally sustained once the criteria for rubella eradication were met.
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