“Amid high tensions with China and the steep cost of confrontation, Western leaders have adopted a buzzword to describe their strategy,” writes Chris Miller. But the economic historian believes “de-risking” is unlikely to work
, but coupling them with high-level summitry and calls to keep trade flowing. The aim is to limit the risk of escalation in both the political and economic spheres. It is unlikely to work.
Start with China’s confidence that it can overcome the restrictions. It is true that China now faces an organised coalition aiming to contain its technological and military advances. On the tech side, Beijing has been locked out of advanced semiconductor technology and venture-capital flows into China have collapsed.
The second problem with de-risking is that Western firms are not listening to politicians’ rhetoric—instead they are taking costly steps to restructure their relationship with China. Foreign investment into China has slumped, partly because of the country’s slowing economy and opaque regulation, but also because companies fromCompanies aren’t trying to be political; they are simply responding to new regulatory reality.
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