It is now two months since Ukraine launched its counter-offensive against Russian lines that stretch across 1,000km of occupied territory. How should its success be measured?
towards the main Russian defensive line before punching through it. That does not appear to have happened yet.
Driving south from Zaporizhzia via Tokmak down to Melitopol and the Sea of Azov, a distance of 200km, would offer Ukraine the greatest strategic reward. It would split Russian forces, cut their land bridge to Crimea and put much of that peninsula within range of artillery shells and missiles. But it would also involve breaching not just the first heavily fortified Russian lines, but pushing on through the most densely defended area of the entire front.
An alternative might be to capitalise on weaker Russian defences in the east around the destroyed town of Bakhmut, and then head south into Donbas. That would be politically damaging for the Russians, who have invested so much blood and effort in the region, but less strategically advantageous for the Ukrainians than reaching the coast. However, by focusing on Bakhmut now, Ukraine is pulling some Russian forces away from the south, and thus possibly opening up other gaps.
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