From shining lasers at Philippine ships in February to firing water cannons at them over the weekend, China keeps testing the limits of aggression in the South China Sea
Experts say that China appears to be baiting a military response from opposing claimants in the South China Sea that would trigger an even more dangerous but legally justifiable use of force on its part, but so far none of the nations involved have militarily engaged with China over the issue. The Philippines has repeatedly pursued diplomatic pathways to file its grievances, including summoning the Chinese ambassador over the incident on Monday.
Though China’s shooting of the water cannon was dangerous, says Derek Grossman, senior defense analyst at the RAND Corporation in Santa Monica, Calif., it would not be considered an “armed attack” that would trigger a mutual defense treaty between Washington and Manila. “Typically, an armed attack results in permanent destruction or disabling of an asset, with possible human casualties or loss of life.
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