A swing in asset prices is not unprecedented. But the bond-market hysteria is more unusual
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitask, a tech-heavy stock index, is down by almost 30%. The shocks keep on coming. Just as investors started to worry about stubborn inflation, Russia invaded Ukraine, turbocharging commodity prices and piling more pressure on central banks to crank up interest rates. China is strangling its economy with its zero-covid policy.
Central bankers have become hard to read for a reason: the macroeconomic oracles on which they partly rely, our second gauge, are exceptionally dispersed. A measure of disagreement among professional forecasters of economic growth surveyed by the Philadelphia Fed is nearly triple its typical 2010s level; it has been above two percentage points for nine consecutive quarters, which last occurred between 1979 and 1981, when inflation was in double digits.
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