California and New York on the left, Florida and Texas on the right
By Alexandra Suich Bass: Senior correspondent for politics, technology and society, The Economist, Dallas. But if they want to understand where America is heading, they should keep an eye on the states, and especially the four most populous: California, Florida, New York and Texas. Together they are home to more than a third of Americans and produce more than a third of nationalIt is not just their size that makes them consequential.
California and New York are run by Democrats, Florida and Texas by Republicans. All four are “trifecta” states, meaning that a single political party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor’s office. This trend of one-party control has become widespread. Today there are 37 “trifecta” states, about double the number in 1992. This helps explain why the states create partisan policy experiments that do not reflect voters’ will.
Second, pay attention to the policy issues the states take up, which often foreshadow national debates. California and, to a lesser extent, New York see themselves as blue beacons of the Democratic agenda. Having already pioneered policies on access to abortion, climate change and benefits for undocumented immigrants, in 2023 they are likely to push to new extremes on the environment, social welfare and labour law.
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